VZW iPhone Predictions

Invitations have been sent, a news conference will be held (at the Lincoln Center in NYC tomorrow at 11:00 am EST), and just about everyone expects that at long last, Verizon Wireless (VZW) will announce that it will carry the iPhone. But for those who just can't wait, here's my take on what will be announced:

VZW will carry the iPhone, which will be available in Apple Stores (and VZW Stores) in early February. Many believe the VZW iPhone will go on sale on February 3, based in part on the report that Apple is keeping Holiday staff for an extra couple of months and is not allowing vacations for retail staffers from February 3 through 6. (In the past, Apple has limited vacation for retail store employees around past new product releases, for both iPhone and iPad.

The VZW iPhone will be nearly identical to the current iPhone 4 which has been available from AT&T since last June, i.e., It will be an iPhone 4 with a different air interface that runs on VZW's CDMA network rather than AT&T's GSM network. (So you will not be able to bring your AT&T iPhone into a VZW store to switch carriers; you will need to buy a new VZW iPhone. And don't expect a Buy One, Get One Free anytime soon!)

Most believe that the iPhone will likely stay on an annual product cycle. The current iPhone 4 was released on June 24, 2010. Previous updates were in June 2009 and July 2008. This would suggest that the next iPhone (version 5) could come over Summer 2011.

WSJ has reported that the iPhone will be offered under existing VZW service plans, including unlimited data plans. (This is not surprising because many of AT&T's iPhone customers, which VZW would like to lure away or lure back, enjoy unlimited data plans.) Equally important, VZW wants to convey confidence in the quality and data capacity of its network.

This iPhone announced tomorrow will NOT be an LTE device, nor will this iPhone have NFC capabilities.

When the AT&T and VZW's iPhones are tested side by side, the VZW version will provide better call quality in most markets and under most conditions. Despite claims and counterclaims by the operators, in test after test, the VZW network performs better than AT&T.

Piper Jaffray has predicted VZW will sell 9 million iPhones this year, with AT&T selling 11 million iPhones, with Apple thus selling 20 million iPhones through their two US carrier channels this year. Adding Verizon to its US carrier channels gives Apple access to more than 60 percent of US mobile subscribers. Apple will definitely sell more iPhones with two carrier channels than with one.