Out of the Blue

"The Cellphone Effect" in Political Polls

One of the top electoral poll tracking sites observes that polls that include cellphones in their samples have Obama ahead by 9.4 percentage points, while the landline-only polls show just a 5.1 point lead.

Nate Silver, who runs the site, noted:

Mark DeCamillo of California's vaunted Field Poll, which include[s] cellphones in their samples, suggested … that it was much easier to get the cooperation of cellphone users on the weekend than during the week. How come? Because most cellphone plans include free weekend minutes. Conversely, one might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are out volunteering for Obama). So, while I haven't tried to verify this, it wouldn't surprise me if the "cellphone gap" expands over the weekend, and contracts during the week.

I suspect this effect is some combination of:

1. Higher mobile penetration among younger users who, according to polls, tend to track higher for Obama;
2. Wireline substitution among this same demographic, where many simply don’t have landline phones, so polls that don’t include cellphones will simply not reach this demographic;
3. Cellphone users are typically more tech-savvy, again which is more consistent with Obama voters;
4. Cellphone coverage is better in urban areas, which tend to vote more Democratic, while less densely-populated areas, where coverage is worse and people are less reliant on mobiles, are more conservative (notwithstanding that rural Vermont voters probably cancel out rural Idaho voters);
5. Obama has more effectively harnessed the power of mobile with text-messaging campaigns (e.g., announcement of his VP choice);
6. Day of week and time of day of poll relative to price of minutes, as suggested above; and
7. A lot more that will come out in post-election analysis.

Having recently spoken with several telephone number database providers, mobile telephone number databases are simply not as good as those for landlines, and it’s not clear how the numbers that are available skew demographically.

When the election results are in, and the winners and losers among pollsters are declared, I suspect much more will be written about this fascinating topic.  

Mobile 2.0 Conference in SF

On Monday, November 3rd, I will be moderating a panel on Online & Mobile Advertising Models at the MOBILE 2.0 conference. Take a look at the agenda, and you will see why this conference is so highly anticipated, and well-regarded. The panelists are outstanding, experts and thought-leaders from all aspects of the mobile ecosystem. Unlike so many conferences, it’s very affordable and is guaranteed to be thought-provoking and stimulating. And a great networking event. See you there!

The Silver Ball

For four hours last night, I couldn’t hear my mobile phone, or anyone’s mobile for that matter, above the bells, chimes, bumpers, replay knockers and hard rock music. I was at the Second Annual Pacific Pinball Exposition at the Marin Civic Center, which must be the largest pinball show in the US, the Free World and probably the galaxy. For the price of admission (with no overage charges), one could play unlimited pinballs until the wee hours. (I love unlimited plans!) 

 

And unlimited pinballs is exactly what I did; I couldn’t stop playing, even though I could feel the early onset of carpal tunnel creeping into both wrists! My wrists and index fingers were the only casualties, as I logged hours bobbing, weaving and occasionally cursing the Gottlieb pinball machines, my favorites, of which they must have had more than 100, including Sixties and Seventies classics like Royal Flush, Flipper Cowboy, Bank-A-Ball, Crosstown, Royal Guard, Target Pool, Joker Poker, Jack in the Box and Playball, to name a few. These were vintage machines, most fully restored and many in “museum condition” – which is exactly what the show’s sponsors are doing: raising money for a new pinball museum in nearby Alameda. (I love a good charity event!) Today, museum founders have the Lucky Ju Ju Pinball Gallery, as well as a Mobile Pinball Museum contained in a fully restored and modified 1947 Spartan Manor Travel Trailer. They already have more than 100 machines in their collection awaiting a home for the museum. For the event, collectors also loan machines, some of which are for sale, to the show. All in, there were more than 250 machines at the Expo last night. There were also tournaments, auctions, memorabilia, t-shirts (of course), “food”, beer and an endless stream of hard rock music blaring in the background.

 

When I reluctantly left at 10:45 pm, wrists aching, the animated crowd was still going strong, playing, jumping and swearing at machines. Pinballs clearly bring out aggressive behavior; on three different occasions throughout the evening, I found myself playing a few machines away from the same guy, recognizing him each time by the same stream of swear words after missing another shot or draining another ball. Thankfully, there’s blood pressure medication for these people!

 

The throngs were bigger this year than at last year’s inaugural show. Not surprisingly, the newer machines, with their fancy electronics, neon lights, ramps, chutes, music and modern (and more violent) themes, often borrowed from movies or TV, were heavily played by teens and twenty-somethings, while the older, Post-War classics — which far-outnumbered the newer machines — were played by the folks who played them when they were seemingly in every bar, diner, bowling alley and arcade. (Mind you, I had occasion to visit such establishments as a result of an ongoing research project I was conducting into American folkways, financed through a grant from the Morris National Bank converted to an endless stream of quarters until my graduation from law school.)

 

The Pacific Pinball Expo is a great event, and the promoters promise an even bigger one next year. I’m already counting the days.

 

Tags: pinball, Gottlieb

Hearts, Minds and the Mobile Address Book

Mobile operators face a new battle for control of the customer relationship. But this time it's not about ringtones, games and search; it's about what is quite possibly their most valuable asset -- the application you use to make a phone call.

The challengers are the online social networks, with their growing reach, power and innovation, and their legions of developers. When online social network meets mobile phone, the frontline is the humble address book.

Worldwide, nearly 600 million people visited an online social network in June 2008, according to comScore. The leading social networking sites -- Facebook, hi5, MySpace, Friendster, Orkut and Bebo -- added 88 million new visitors in the first half of the year. People keep coming back; 96% of online tweens and teens log onto a social network at least weekly.

Now online social networks are moving from the desktop and laptop to the cell phone, with versions of Facebook and MySpace for Blackberry, iPhone and the mobile web, as well as a new group of “social network aggregators” like Yahoo's oneConnect. In less than a year, more than five million of Facebook’s 100+ million users have mobilized.

 There is a larger, more ubiquitous, and far more meaningful social network than Facebook, hi5 or MySpace, or all of the online social networks combined; it’s the network of people that you, I and everybody else actually talk to (and get together with) each day. It’s our real social network, and includes people, businesses and organizations not part of any online community. And mobile operators are smack in the middle of this real network.

Your real social network is not listed on any web site. More likely, it’s in your mobile handset’s address book. Because in the real world, you “friend” someone by exchanging phone numbers. And while we text, IM, e-mail (or forward articles, jokes and other curiosities) to a larger group of friends and acquaintances – some of whom we haven’t talked to in years -- the more we actually talk, the closer the bond.

Territory is already being staked out. At CTIA last week, Yahoo called its oneConnect app “a revolutionary social address book” that brings together your people and your life with a full-featured phone book that integrates contacts from your Yahoo address book and social networks. In the same week, Visto announced its own “living address book” which combines e-mail, social networks and messaging into one user interface.

The strategic importance of the mobile address book as social network has not been lost on mobile operators. For example, T-Mobile’s myFaves® plan allows you to call your five favorite people on any network for free. Alltel launched its My Circle plan, where subscribers choose between 5, 10 or 20 numbers to call for free.

By making it easy (and affordable) to stay connected to the people who matter the most, these operators have successfully positioned themselves in the middle of their subscribers’ real social network. And if these limited, “mini social networks” are sticky, imagine how strong the customer bond would be if the mobile operator were in the middle of the subscriber’s entire social network?

Operators are waking up to the coming battle for the address book, and more importantly, who will power it. Vodafone has already made an acquisition: Zyb. Partnering for innovation is essential.

I work with a new company called Skydeck that has a different approach to the market. Skydeck combines a subscriber’s address book (from Gmail, Yahoo, Outlook or Plaxo) with their call records to map their real social network – the people that they actually call and text most often. Skydeck helps users keep track of their network and all their mobile calls and text messages with a Gmail-like web interface, and is a precursor of things to come.

How strong are the challengers and how big the stakes? The leading social network sites are as big or bigger than any domestic mobile operator, are growing faster, have repeatedly demonstrated innovation and virality, and have captured the hearts, minds and eyeballs of the most prized demographic – the affluent, educated, Internet-savvy 18-34 year olds that operators are relying on for growth.

Today, mobile operators are well-positioned n the middle of their subscribers’ real social networks.  The power, reach and innovation of the leading social networks and their community of developers could be the mobile network operators’ biggest challenge, or opportunity, in the battle over the “social utility” that is your mobile address book.

Originally published in TelephonyOnline on Sept. 19^th.

 

Tags: Skydeck, T-Mobile, myFaves, Alltel, My+Circle, Yahoo, oneConnect, Facebook, MySpace, hi5, Vodafone, Gmail, Plaxo, social+network, mobile, address+book

iPhone -- More on iPhone Dropped Calls

Apple is reportedly working on a software fix for the dropped call problem described in my blog entry yesterday, 3G iPhone — Everything but a phone. This can’t happen soon enough. Since my blog entry yesterday, several readers have confirmed that they too have experienced similar dropped calls and poor call quality. According to the WSJ in its story “Apple Moves to Fix Problem Of Dropped Calls on iPhone”, we are not alone:

“The move by Apple could help address a chorus of online complaints from users who have said the device, one of the most eagerly anticipated electronics gadgets in years, suffers from an unusually high number of phone calls that are dropped in mid-conversation.”

Until Apple fixes the voice quality and dropped call problems, the iPhone is unsuitable for voice calling. Whether this is a simple software fix or a hardware problem, it has to be solved, pronto. As the WSJ observes:

“…the effectiveness and speed with which Apple comes up with a solution for the dropped calls could affect the long-term success of the iPhone, an important growth market for the company.”

 In the meantime, I’ve switched to another handset for all voice calls. According to a story in Business Week, others are doing the same! The difference is astounding. It’s not the network, but the iPhone, that’s dropping calls!

3G iPhone -- Everything but a phone!

I’ve had my 3G iPhone for more than two weeks now, and I love it. It goes everywhere I go, and it does everything. Well, almost everything. Actually, everything but a phone! The sound quality for voice calls is appalling; the Bluetooth connection almost unusable because of the echo, and the dropped calls beyond maddening. After suffering through two weeks of poor call quality and more dropped calls than I’ve experienced in a decade, I wanted to know whether it was the network or the handset, so I ran the ultimate comparison between my Nokia N95 and the 3G iPhone, both on AT&T’s network. Not exactly scientific, but the best handset comparison I could conduct. 

The envelope, please? The results are in – it’s not the network but the handset. The Nokia N95 won hands down! No contest. To me (and when I checked, the person at the other end of the connection), the Nokia N95 has far superior sound quality, excellent Bluetooth sound with no echo, far better radio (with no dropped calls!), a fabulous speakerphone rivaling office Polycom systems, and beyond these critically important voice quality characteristics, an outstanding camera (Carl Zeiss lens, 5 MP) that could replace most Point & Shoot cameras. (Sadly, it just doesn’t have the Apple GUI.)

Testing the 3G iPhone — After pairing my iPhone with my Nissan Altima Hybrid’s hands-free phone system, I pulled out of my driveway and placed a call. By the time I got to the bottom of the hill (1.2 miles), the call had dropped three times. The sound quality was poor as well, with an annoying echo not experienced with my any other paired device.  (I live on a hilltop in Marin County, about a half-mile from Highway 101, the main North-South highway running the length of California. Not exactly the boonies!) After a few dropped call episodes, I stopped using the phone until I reached the flats. I still had dropped calls.

Testing the Nokia N95 — Same network, same car/hands-free system, different handset. And a different experience entirely. I initiated a call from my driveway, retracing my route down the hill, and in each of the three spots where my call dropped on the iPhone, the conversation continued uninterrupted. We talked for 20+ minutes, without a drop. I placed another call, to the recipient of the original 3–dropped calls conversation(s), who commented that the call quality was better this time on his end. And no drops so far.

Verdict — No one’s made the perfect handset yet. I’ve said what the iPhone isn’t — a decent device for voice calling — but it has the best mobile browser by a lot, an elegant interface, fun apps — my current fave, Guitar Toolkit, for tuning guitar, illustrating chords and keeping the beat — and then there’s the coolness factor. Forget about e-mail, for which the BlackBerry rules. I use the 8820 (at least until the Bold is available). With a keyboard and the BlackBerry software, it’s simply the best for e-mail and business. And my current voice handset — the Nokia N95. So for now, I’m carrying three mobile devices, one for e-mail, one for browsing and one for good ol’ fashioned voice calls. That doesn’t include my Sprint USB Novatel U727 modem. The iPhone has further complicated my life, and added a third device to carry. Maybe I’ll give it all up and get a Jitterbug phone, the simplest and most elegant handset (and GUI) out there.

NOTE: California has a new hands-free law which prohibits all drivers from using a handheld wireless telephone while operating a motor vehicle (except to make emergency calls to a law enforcement agency, a medical provider, the fire department, or other emergency services agency.) So how well the iPhone, N95 or other handset operates in hands-free mode is very important, if you want to make a call in a car.

Tags: iPhone, 3G, Apple, Nokia, N95, quality, handset, dropped, echo, speakerphone, camera, Bluetooth, hands-free, sound, Guitar+Toolkit, Novatel

Wireless on the Water

Last weekend, I crewed on a delivery of a brand new, 49–foot Beneteau sailboat from Annapolis, MD to Newport, RI. It was a two-day trip, and we were going to be out of touch. Or were we? Wireless played a huge part in the delivery, and produced surprising results. We also happened upon at least two likely Darwin Award nominees, but more about that later.

Navigation was made easy through fancy electronics and wireless, starting with a GPS chartplotter which showed our boat’s position superimposed on a navigation chart. Add radio-based Automatic Identification System, which provides geoposition and identification of approaching commercial vessels on top of the chart view, so that we could, for example, see tugs pulling huge barges in the channel in the middle of the night with vital information like boat speed, displacement, destination, etc. And of course, there’s radar, especially useful for the night portions of the journey. Let me tell you, nowhere is it more clear how valuable these Location Based Services are than when you’re 75 miles offshore in the North Atlantic in the middle of the night, with state-of-the-art marine electronics and wireless radio!

We weren’t out of touch for mobile communications. Four sailors, four Blackberries, three feature phones and a high-speed data card – all four national carriers were onboard! (It got a little crowded with the “Do you hear me now?” guy and his support staff!) Twelve miles offshore from Atlantic City, we were checking e-mails, and getting a few messages out as well. Coverage was spotty that far out, not strong enough for a voice call, but the Blackberries were sending/receiving e-mails with no problem. In fact, for most of the journey except on the Atlantic City to Long Island leg, we had Blackberry coverage, including an incredible 14 miles offshore Long Island.

The most entertainment came from the VHF radio, on which Channel 16 is monitored. Vessels are required to carry marine radios. The Coast Guard and most coast stations maintain a listening watch on this channel, which is used for international calling, distress and safety. It is supposed to be limited to essential and emergency uses. Unfortunately, many inexperienced boaters use Channel 16 like a CB radio. Three transmissions/exchanges stood out, and maybe you don’t have to be a sailor to understand that at least two of these could be future Darwin Award nominees:

1. One boater asked, “Does anyone know if there are any weather advisories for the area?”  (It is inadvisable if not downright foolhardy to go out on the water without knowing what the weather is going to be. All VHF radios have seven weather channels operated by NOAA, each with continuous weather broadcasts for a local area. This information was readily available had the user known how to use her radio. Fate will eventually catch up with this boater, a possible future Darwin nominee.)

2. Another not-so-swift boater requested a “regulation check” (as if there was someone with a rule book in front of them ready to answer any question) on whether it is “illegal to use a charcoal grill on a boat.” We were tempted to say, “Yes, but not indoors,” but someone else asked a better question, “Why?”, to which the future Darwin nominee responded, “I don’t want to do anything illegal.”  He should have been more concerned about doing something stupid, but it all made for a few laughs.

3. The frequent (and annoying) “radio checks” on a channel allocated to safety and distress situations, clogging the channel. At one point, we heard an emergency broadcast involving a capsize of a Boston Whaler with three boaters overboard. Sounded like a serious situation, until the report continued that the boaters were standing on a sand bar. Fortunately, the boaters knew to stay near the vessel. But if this emergency situation had been blocked by a “radio check”, it could have been far worse.

Finally, once we arrived in Newport, I pulled out my high-speed data card, got on my laptop, and immediately was fully reconnected (with blazing speed, I might add).

So, wireless on the water included:

1. GPS, Satellite, AIS and radar imagery, all integrated in a chartplotter that was the ultimate wireless LBS device;
2. Cellular communications – voice and data (Blackberries and high-speed data cards); and
3. VHF radio.

As they say, it’s the journey, not the destination. Wireless made a great journey even better. And safer, too, for those who know how to use it!

Tags: GPS, Radar, VHF, cellular, datacard, Blackberry, sailing, Beneteau, Darwin, Annapolis, Newport, Block+Island, Long+Island, Atlantic+City, Coast+Guard, AIS, navigation, LBS

Another Piece in Telephony: Narrowing the innovation gap

Every few months, I write commentary for Telephony. The latest issue, out today, contains my latest “What’s Next” piece. Take a look, and let me know what you think!

 

Tags: iPhone, Verizon, ALLTEL, mobile+operators, Reed+Hundt, Telephony

3G iPhone Hurts T-Mobile and VZW Most

In my last posting, I said VZW made a huge strategic mistake by passing on the iPhone According to today’s UBS TelMeDaily, last Friday UBS’ equipment group interviewed 328 customers lined up to buy the iPhone, including 222 people in the UK and 106 in the US. Of the US iPhone buyers, 40% were new to AT&T. Of those, 41% came from T-Mobile, 37% from VZW and 20% from Sprint. While the sample size is very small, if these figures hold up, I have to wonder if VZW still believes they made the right decision passing on the iPhone. BTW, some believe that Apple may have gone to VZW only as a stalking horse when all along, they wanted a GSM-based device, which in the US meant AT&T, at the time the largest US operator. Given their worldwide iPhone rollout on other GSM operators, the stalking horse theory rings true.

Tags: iPhone, Apple, Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint, GSM, UBS, UK

They're Already Lining Up

It began yesterday, the Fourth of July. They’re already lining up outside Apple’s Fifth Avenue store in NYC for the 3G iPhone. Earlier in the week, a study by investment bank RBC Capital Markets found that half of consumers in the market for smartphones will buy a 3G iPhone after the July 11th launch. Smartphone users are the most desirable subscribers, with much higher ARPUs than the industry average of $51. For example, iPhone users average $90 ARPUs!

Consumers will be paying $199 for their new 3G iPhone — $200 less than the original iPhone — but an interesting analysis found that with AT&T’s unlimited data plan going up to $30 plus the $5 messaging bolt-on for 200 messages, the 3G iPhone will actually cost consumers $160 more over the two-year term. The analyst’s conclusion: “$160 is a small price to pay—for us at least—over the course of two years to drastically increase your email and browsing speeds.”

While consumers will be paying $200 less up-front, and $160 more over a two-year term, what has the iPhone cost its competitors, particularly VZW?

Last Fall, when asked if he had any regret passing on the iPhone, VZW CEO Lowell McAdam told FierceWireless, “None whatsoever.” Interestingly, when asked the follow-up question in an earlier interview, he explained, “partnering with Apple would have meant surrendering customer service to Apple. It would have prevented Verizon Wireless retail partners from selling the product. And he said the revenue share model was not favorable enough to justify the deal.”

It’s no secret that the iPhone was a big driver of subscriber growth for AT&T in the second half of 2007, and the 3G iPhone promises a similar boost. So much so that the only way VZW was going to pass AT&T in total subscribers is through acquisition. Many consider this the main reason VZ is spending $28 billion to buy ALLTEL — to add their 13 million subscribers to VZW’s 67 million — to get to 80 million (vs. AT&T’s 71 million at end of 1Q08) and leapfrog AT&T to be Number One.

With lines forming a week in advance, VZW is not going to catch AT&T organically, especially if its answer to the iPhone is a handset named after a minivan (did Chrysler license the Voyager name to VZW?) A $199 iPhone will also force handset prices down. VZW (and everyone else) is going to have a hard time selling any handset for more than $199. If half of consumers looking for a smartphone will buy an iPhone, even high-end smartphones will be hard to sell at more than $200. Except the Blackberry. Here again, AT&T will be first to market with the Bold, which will also push sales.

But $28 billion later, at least VZW didn’t have to surrender customer service to Apple, a brand customers consistently rank high, usually higher than Verizon. VZW made a huge strategic mistake by passing on the iPhone, and protestations to the contrary just don’t ring true, at least to this observer.

Tags: iPhone, Apple, AT&T, Verizon, VZW, wireless, ALLTEL, Blackberry, 3G, McAdam, RBC, subscribers, Bold, smartphone, brand